Real Estate Industry

Toronto’s 2015 2nd Quarter Freehold Sales Results

Published July 10, 2015 by Marcus Assalone

Now that the sales numbers are in for the second quarter of 2015, we can see that the growth centres we saw last year in the east end of the city continues.  The following analysis is based on a comparison of results between 2015’s Q2 and the same period last year. The greatest areas of increase in average sale price for freehold properties are concentrated in the east, and are even more concentrated than they were last year.  Buyers seem to be driven to the areas thanks to lower prices, and developing amenities suited for a prosperous family life.

toronto heat areas

Heat Map of Growth Areas for Toronto, Based on Freehold Sales in the 2nd Quarter 2015. Darker Red Indicates Higher Growth for The Same Period in 2014 Year/Year

By consulting the map, you can see that there are no blue areas, meaning all areas here saw positive growth. In the months April, May and June 2015 there were 6580 sales with an average sale price of just over $984000.

In the East, the runaway winners in growth were the areas against the lake. Homes closer to the downtown increased on average 30.6% and those further away increased 26.4%. This is the same region that performed poorly because of the weak summer we had, it seems that with a return of heat this year has refueled demand for this beautiful area.  The average house here sells for around $740000. Buyers here are clearly seeking value, but may not be entirely convinced about its long term potential, as the month to month average sale price for these areas do not have any consistency. They are up and down with out any real underlying reason.

Looking East from the CN Tower Observation Deck

Looking East from the CN Tower Observation Deck

The other large centre of increase is closer to the downtown, in York Mills, with a 27.2% increase in average sale price year over year.  It is the region with the highest average home sale price in the city, at over 3 times the average. Its monthly figures have been very strong, and have been getting stronger by the month. The month of May saw a 29% increase, June was almost a 42% increase y/y. These homes started the year selling for around $1.9 million, with a 2014 average of around $2.3 million, steadily increasing to an average sale price of $3.4 million in June, for 2015’s Q2, it is just over $3 million.

The other large areas of growth in the east include Malvern with 20.33% and the area surrounding Leslie and Finch with 20.43% increase y/y. The East End of the Downtown around Queen and Parliament, thanks to recent revitalization saw amazing growth too at 21.31% since the same period last year.

The neighbourhood with the lowest average price increase was Rosedale with a 3.3% increase y/y. This area has been under some intense price pressure this year with y/y price drops in February March and May. The volatility here in my opinion is due to concern with the national economy. This neighbourhood is home to the city’s most affluent, and they maybe making moves to prepare for the financial problems they see coming.  In York Mills the sale of high end properties leads to more sales at higher prices, but that pattern does not continue here. There doesn’t seem to be a consistent track record lately. Here we see the sale of very high end properties, it is home to the cities most expensive homes, in-fact, Rosedale has the second highest average home price in the city at just under $2.5 million.

All other neighbourhoods in the city saw growth above 6%. Rexdale continues to have Toronto’s lowest average priced home where there is a slow but steady growth pattern.

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